Geopolitical Context

In relation to great powers’ politics and under escalating economic, political, and military competition security concerns have risen to an unprecedented level. The great powers’ technological advances and related strength elevated by wide-ranging modernisation of their military forces, enables further their global impact. Furthermore, the threat landscape is most likely to expand and accelerate depending on technological innovation. The use of new technologies will challenge nations to alter their defence posture and heighten their military forces competitiveness. In addition, great powers have made the cyber domain a highly contested space and a medium that reflects the hostile relationships among them.

The great power competition is forcefully unfolding in cyberspace, a domain of the global interconnected technologies. Cyber powers, i.e., the United States, China, Russia, Israel and the United Kingdom, and notable players like Iran and North Korea, all play a part. While China and Russia have very clearly powerful cyber capabilities, North Korea and Iran, and some non-state actors are penetrating deep in the cyberspace and are contesting it as well.

4th Industrial Revolution (4IR)

In the midst of highly complex strategic environment, the 4th Industrial Revolution is marking not only an unprecedented technological and scientific progress with overwhelmingly positive impact on society, but also borderless security shocks created by the ingrained ‘malware’ threatening with immeasurable consequences and disruptive effects on a global scale.

Specifically, new technologies hold an ominous promise to accelerate further existing enmities by foreign aggression and coercion using modern tools in new warfighting domains. The pace of change and disruption is accelerating across all five warfighting domains: land, air, sea, cyberspace and outer space. Particularly in the cyberspace, in which everything and everybody is intrinsically joined and instantaneously susceptible to multiple “butterfly effects”, a combination of geopolitics within the great powers’ competition and manifestation of unprecedented capacity of new technologies will be a driving force of future wars.

Multi-layered challenges of the 4th Industrial Revolution will inevitably, and in unprecedented ways, impact our security and consequently the military affairs.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Hypercompetitive assertiveness and technological innovations’ convergence in the field of, e.g., AI, robotics, machine learning, quantum computing, nanotechnology, biology and bioengineering, will have unpredictable effects on security. Of all technological advancements AI’s impact on cyberspace capabilities, altering human systems, autonomy of weapon systems, and the military use of outer space, are at the core of security concerns of liberal democracies.

Outer space is becoming more critical as nearly all aspects of national security depend on its stability. Although the Pentagon and other agencies sound alarms about threats to governments, militaries, space agencies, companies, they are reluctant to share any details about cyberattacks on satellite.[i] Systems used by militaries, e.g., intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, communications systems, precision timing and navigation, attack warning and targeting systems against potential threats, are also exposed to possible attacks as well as civilian systems in space, e.g., global positioning systems, communications, and other services vital to national economy, are vulnerable.

The remaining missing element for a perfect storm to be imagined we find in artificial intelligence (AI). Its militarized use increases the probability of “hyperwar”, a term coined by General John R. Allen,[ii] USMC (Ret.), alluding to the fact that unparalleled speed enabled by automated decisionmaking and instantaneous deployment of autonomous weapons systems will fundamentally change the character of warfare and war itself.

That being said, military superiority will vastly rely not only on new technologies but also on human capital, and especially on leaders’ capacity to deal with emerging threats. Hence, an organization’s integrity will depend on well-educated, open minded and innovative leaders. 

            [i] Erwin, S. 2018, ‘Sorry sci-fi fans, real wars in space not the stuff of Hollywood’, Spacenews, January 2, accessed 20 February 2018, < https://spacenews.com/sorry-sci-fi-fans-real-wars-in-space-not-the-stuff-of-hollywood/?sthash.EAGThJrD.mjjo >

            [ii] General (Ret.) John R. Allen is current President of Brookings Institution and former Commander of the NATO International Security Assistance Force and U.S. Forces – Afghanistan 2011-2013, and former Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant 2014-2015,  appointed by President Obama.

Cyber Security

The current security landscape, distinct from the past, is marked by sustained cyberwarfare launched in a “grey zone” of cyberspace, a zone between war and peace, where aggression and coercion persist just below the level that risks military confrontation. This on-going warfare can be labelled in multiple ways, e.g. Hybrid Warfare, Asymmetric Warfare, Digital Cold War with underlined East – West divide, Cyberwar, Codewar. However labelled, we can agree that is not quite a war and no death casualties have been reported to date. Multiple state and non-state actors use new technologies for political interference and economic gain threatening national and international security. Until now, cybrattacks perpetrated either by states or by criminal groups and individuals have never risen to the level of acts of war despite disruptive waves across cyberspace. Nevertheless, cyberattacks recorded so far hold the promise of a dire future. Therefore, they need to be perceived as a wake-up call for institutional adaptation to secure and defend against them. 

Unity of effort and purpose, through broad based collaboration, will better secure connected systems in cyberspace.

Future of War

Multi-layered challenges of the 4th Industrial Revolution will inevitably, and in unprecedented ways, impact our security and consequently the military affairs. The new and emerging security environment will further demand a different military structures and different leadership skills. Future wars will require the continuous integration of forces across multiple domains and converging capabilities. To achieve dominance across all warfighting domains will be a modern leadership challenge to ensure alignment and employment of the nation’s forces.

Although we perceive warfare as a military matter, a balanced joint civilian and military response is needed. An answer to any crisis rests with a whole of government, even whole of society, approach. Thus, a successful collaboration calls for a coordinated process among defense, law enforcement, government agencies, the private sector, and academia, with priorities well set and based on the particular capabilities of each entity. A common threat perception and common awareness of possible threats will be a defining condition of this broader spectrum of collaboration. This presents itself as an important foundation for strategic political and military leadership to expand the use of national capabilities in a concerted effort.